Unemployment in Glasgow can be measured in various ways. The claimant count measure includes all people that receive Job Seekers Allowance (unemployment benefit) and is produced by the Office for National Statistics each month. Its main drawback is that it is based on a definition that can be changed through amendments to the welfare benefit system.
An alternative is the estimate of unemployment that comes from the Annual Population Survey (which was the Labour Force Survey), also produced by the ONS. This is based on a household survey and has the advantage of including people that are unemployed but not eligible for JSA. It is produced every three months, but around nine months in arrears.
A third option is unemployment according to the Census and which has been produced every ten years: useful for long term longitudinal work, but not for measuring short-term change.
These measures are all counts and have to be set against an appropriate denominator to get a rate. What age group?: the working-age population has been affected by changes to the retirement age. As a compromise the male and female 16-64 age group is probably the most suitable, as 16 marks the end of primary and secondary education, although the 64 cut-off for retirement is also under discussion. The ONS produces an estimate of the 16-64 population as a mid-year estimate and is the best available. This is not an esoteric discussion, as the ONS itself uses a range of denominators, and the 2001 Census results were based on a 16-74 definition of the working age population, coming as a surprise to many.
Based on this, the most recent estimate of the unemployment rate in Glasgow is
- 6.0%, based on a January 2012 claimant count of 24,860 as a percentage of a 16-64 2010 mid-year estimate of 414,700, the most recent available;
- 8.5%, based on a July 2010-June 2011 Annual Population Survey estimate of 35,400 set against the 16-64 2010 mye (note that the ONS output uses a denominator of 289,900, which makes no sense at all).
A similar approach can be taken to estimating youth unemployment. JSA is normally only available to people aged 18 and above, and the reporting system uses the 18-24 age group as a template to estimate youth unemployment. This gives a rate of 9.3%,
based on a January 2012 claimant count of 6,535 as a percentage of a 18-24 2010 mid-year estimate of 69,900.
The APS for July 2010-June 2011 gives a count of 11,800, but this is based on a larger age group (5,500 aged 16-19; 6,300 aged 20-24) for which an exact denominator is not available (the closest is 35,600 aged 15-19, and 53,300 aged 20-24). But if you use the 2010 mye, make a pro-rata reduction in the 15-19 age group and add it to the 20-24 total to estimate the 16-24 age group, you get a total of 81,780 and a rate of 14.4%.
