The purpose of this page is to outline how the indicators used in this blog have been defined, from where they have been sourced, and other comments on analysis and interpretation. Unless otherwise stated, the details relate to Glasgow under the current (2012) local government boundary.
Employment
There are two ways of defining employment in an area. The first looks at the resident population in an area, and expresses employment in terms of the proportion of the working age population in employment, and is regardless of the location of the place of employment. It therefore includes people resident in an area and working in that area, and people resident in an area working outside that area (out-commuters). Note that this definition excludes people in self employment, such as sole traders and proprietors. To work out the employment rate, an estimate of the working age population resident in the area is used.
The second definition is of the total number of jobs in an area, regardless of the person's place of residence. It therefore counts the number of people resident in an area and working in that area, together with those working in an area but resident outside that area (in-commuters).
The employment rate comes from an estimate of adults in employment (from the Annual Population Survey) set against the working-age population (from the mid-year estimate). The most recent estimate is for the year to September 2011 and is for 258,200 adults in employment, against a total 414,700 adults of working age (2010), giving a rate of 62.3%. The employment details are made available four times a year from the Office for National Statistics, around nine months in arrears.
There are two ways of defining employment in an area. The first looks at the resident population in an area, and expresses employment in terms of the proportion of the working age population in employment, and is regardless of the location of the place of employment. It therefore includes people resident in an area and working in that area, and people resident in an area working outside that area (out-commuters). Note that this definition excludes people in self employment, such as sole traders and proprietors. To work out the employment rate, an estimate of the working age population resident in the area is used.
The second definition is of the total number of jobs in an area, regardless of the person's place of residence. It therefore counts the number of people resident in an area and working in that area, together with those working in an area but resident outside that area (in-commuters).
The employment rate comes from an estimate of adults in employment (from the Annual Population Survey) set against the working-age population (from the mid-year estimate). The most recent estimate is for the year to September 2011 and is for 258,200 adults in employment, against a total 414,700 adults of working age (2010), giving a rate of 62.3%. The employment details are made available four times a year from the Office for National Statistics, around nine months in arrears.
The quarterly employment total has in recent years been heavily influenced by two factors: the state of the economy, and also seasonal factors. Employment levels tend to be relatively low in September each year. The rate is also influenced by the size of the working-age population, which in Glasgow has been increasing (2008 405,500; 2009 410,200; 2010 414,700).
Comparison of employment rates
This motion chart shows the relationship between employment rates and workless rates for Glasgow, Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds. When and where employment rates are high, workless rates will be low, and vice versa. So it is maybe more useful to track the changes in individual cities, rather than compare cities against each other, although the chart leads the viewer to that conclusion.
These visualisations have been developed using the Google visualisation API. Remember to click the backward arrow to revert back to this page, rather than deleting it, which deletes the entire blog.
Unemployment
Comparison of employment rates
This motion chart shows the relationship between employment rates and workless rates for Glasgow, Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds. When and where employment rates are high, workless rates will be low, and vice versa. So it is maybe more useful to track the changes in individual cities, rather than compare cities against each other, although the chart leads the viewer to that conclusion.
These visualisations have been developed using the Google visualisation API. Remember to click the backward arrow to revert back to this page, rather than deleting it, which deletes the entire blog.
Unemployment
Unemployment in Glasgow can be measured in various ways. The claimant count measure includes all people that receive Job Seekers Allowance (unemployment benefit) and is produced by the Office for National Statistics each month. Its main drawback is that it is based on a definition that can be changed through amendments to the welfare benefit system.
An alternative is the estimate of unemployment that comes from the Annual Population Survey (which was the Labour Force Survey), also produced by the ONS. This is based on a household survey and has the advantage of including people that are unemployed but not eligible for JSA. It is produced every three months, but around nine months in arrears.
A third option is unemployment according to the Census and which has been produced every ten years: useful for long term longitudinal work, but not for measuring short-term change.
These measures are all counts and have to be set against an appropriate denominator to get a rate. What age group?: the working-age population has been affected by changes to the retirement age. As a compromise the male and female 16-64 age group is probably the most suitable, as 16 marks the end of primary and secondary education, although the 64 cut-off for retirement is also under discussion. The ONS produces an estimate of the 16-64 population as a mid-year estimate and is the best available. This is not an esoteric discussion, as the ONS itself uses a range of denominators, and the 2001 Census results were based on a 16-74 definition of the working age population, coming as a surprise to many.
Based on this, the most recent estimate of the unemployment rate in Glasgow is
- 6.1%, based on a March 2012 claimant count of 25,295 as a percentage of a 16-64 2010 mid-year estimate of 414,700, the most recent available;
- 8.5%, based on a October 2010-September 2011 Annual Population Survey estimate of 35,300 set against the 16-64 2010 mye (note that the ONS output uses a denominator of 289,900, which makes no sense at all).
A similar approach can be taken to estimating youth unemployment. JSA is normally only available to people aged 18 and above, and the reporting system uses the 18-24 age group as a template to estimate youth unemployment. This gives a rate of 9.7%, based on a January 2012 claimant count of 6,780 as a percentage of a 18-24 2010 mid-year estimate of 69,900.
The APS for October 2010-September 2011 gives a count of 12,800, but this is based on a larger age group (5,900 aged 16-19; 6,900 aged 20-24) for which an exact denominator is not available (the closest is 35,600 aged 15-19, and 53,300 aged 20-24). But if you use the 2010 mye, make a pro-rata reduction in the 15-19 age group and add it to the 20-24 total to estimate the 16-24 age group, you get a total of 81,780 and a rate of 15.7%.
Overall Workless
Overall Workless
This is a measure of the total number of people of working age on benefits, using data of the working age client group from the Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study produced by the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP). It is a useful indicator, as many people move into work from benefits other than Job Seekers' Allowance. However, it cannot be assumed that everyone of working age and in receipt of benefits is capable of moving into employment.
There are two ways of presenting this information
- Benefit type: individual details of specific benefits such as Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), Incapacity Benefit/Employment Support Allowance (IB/ESA), Disability Living Allowance and others;
- Statistical group: JSA, IB/ESA, lone parents, carers, disabled.
The analysis uses a definition of out-of-work benefits from the second group, which includes JSA, IB/ESA, lone parents and others on income-related benefits. Note that this excludes people receiving Carers Allowance and others of working age categorised as disabled or bereaved. The data is produced around nine months in arrears, so that in April 2012 the most recent information is for August 2011. On the other hand, it is a 100% count of all claimants, and there is no sampling error involved in the dataset.
The actual workless definition is made in the following way. Using the August 2011 information for Glasgow, for the working age population:
- 24,750: number of people receiving JSA;
- 63,180: number receiving out-of-work benefits excluding JSA;
- 87,930: total out-of-work benefits (24,750 + 63,180);
- 12,130: total working age on benefits not related to being out-of-work;
- 100,060: total working age on benefits (24,750 + 63,180 + 12,130).
For absolute clarity, the analysis that follows uses total out-of-work benefits to define overall workless, and uses the actual or most recent estimate of the working age population from the mid-year estimates (age 16-64 for both men and women).
Click here to get data for Glasgow, May each year.
Multiple Deprivation
Click here to get data for Glasgow, May each year.
Multiple Deprivation
Multiple deprivation is measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), produced by Scottish National Statistics. The SIMD gives a value of multiple deprivation for each of the 6,505 datazones that cover Scotland, of which 694 are in Glasgow. Three waves of the SIMD have been produced, for 2004, 2006 and 2009; with an update due later in 2012.
The strength of the SIMD is that it summarises 38 separate indicators in 7 domains (income, employment, health, education, crime, housing, access to services) for each datazone. Further, each of the domains can be analysed separately. The convention has been to look at vigintiles within the ranking distribution, such as the bottom 1%-5% datazones (or datazones ranking from 1 to 325) or the bottom 1%-15% datazones (1 to 976). The bottom 1%-15% has been used to describe areas of multiple deprivation: note that there will ALWAYS be a bottom 1%-15% in any distribution, regardless of underlying trends or the average.
Issues to bear in mind are
- comparisons over time will always be made, even though the definition of indicators may be different between SIMD waves, and like is not always strictly compared with like;
- datazone geographies were based on roughly equal population totals as at 2003, and have not changed even though demolitions/new build mean that datazones now have widely varying population levels;
- the SIMD measures the number of people affected by deprivation in a particular area, but says nothing about the position faced by the non-deprived population in an area. If there are wide inequalities within an area, it will be defined by the deprived population and not as an average of the overall population.
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