Recent data for Glasgow shows a weakening in the labour market position, according to details from the Office for National Statistics.
|
Employment
rate - aged 16-64
|
Jan 2011-Dec 2011
|
Apr 2011-Mar 2012
|
Jul 2011-Jun 2012
|
Oct 2011-Sep 2012
|
Jan 2012-Dec 2012
|
|
|
| ||||
|
|
63.8
|
63.7
|
63.2
|
62.4
|
59.7
|
|
|
59.7
|
59.6
|
60.2
|
59.5
|
60.1
|
|
|
58.7
|
58.9
|
58.7
|
59.8
|
59.9
|
|
|
57.9
|
57.0
|
57.0
|
56.6
|
57.0
|
|
|
67.9
|
67.6
|
66.8
|
67.5
|
68.8
|
|
|
70.7
|
70.7
|
70.9
|
70.8
|
70.6
|
|
|
70.0
|
70.1
|
70.2
|
70.4
|
70.6
|
This is based on a decline in the number of people in Glasgow in employment, falling from 262,300 in the year ending 2011 to 246,500 in the year ending 2012, a fall of 6.0%. This fall is not seen in either the comparator cities or in the national totals. Employment in the surrounding part of the conurbation increased over the same period, from 529,700 to 534,200, by an increase of 0.8%.
It is not simply that the employment rate in Glasgow has fallen under 60% for the first time since the current record series started in 2004. As the table shows, other similar cities have for some time had rates under 60%. It is that the fall has been isolated to Glasgow that raises concern.
The paradox is that while employment fell between year end 2011 and year end 2012, the number unemployed over the same period also fell, from 34,700 to 33,500. The fall in employment was matched not by an increase in unemployment, but by an increase in inactivity. The reduction in employment in Glasgow (-15,800) is not far short of the increase in inactivity over the same period (+18,900). As there was no major change in those inactive looking for work (from 29,100 to 29,200), the rate fell from 25.6% to 21.9%. Although this rate is higher than in Birmingham (16.7%), it is lower than in Liverpool (21.9%), Manchester (28.6%) and Leeds (29.6%); and lower than the national rates for Scotland (25.4%) and the UK (24.6%).
This suggests that the fall in employment has been associated with an increase in the number of people of working age effectively opting out of the labour market. This is clearly of concern. The situation will be monitored closely.
