Unlike England and Wales, Scotland will have to wait another couple of months until we get sight of even the most basic Census 2011 results. Thanks Holyrood. Until then, we will have to make do with the latest (2011) mid-year estimates from Scottish National Statistics. But at least this gives us some details of age composition and without making any great splashes it confirms some trends we've already noticed
- Scotland's population is increasing in number, it increased by 3.8% between 2001 and 2011;
- however the number of people in Scotland aged between 25 and 44 decreased during this period, falling by 6.2%.
The 25-44 age group increased in only three of Scotland's 32 local authorities
- Edinburgh: up by 16.4%;
- Glasgow: increase of 8.0%;
- Aberdeen: up by 2.8%, but lower than the overall population increase of 4.0%.
Any guesses on what they have in common? The age group declined noticeably in areas like Dumfries & Galloway (-21.2%), Argyll & Bute (-21.7%) and East Dunbartonshire (-23.1%).
Looking at Glasgow, by far the greatest proportionate increase was in Anderston/City, where the increase was by 71.2% 2001-11. Then came
- Calton: +27.2%;
- Hillhead: +23.1%;
- Southside Central: +18.6%.
On the other hand, the age group declined in number in
- North East: -11.7%;
- Shettleston: -12.6%;
- Baillieston: -15.8%.
The 25-44 age group is worth monitoring as it includes people likely to be in employment, and probably also contemplating settling down and starting a family. So it gives a clue as to the likely characteristics of a place over the next 5/10/15 years.
What are the features and wider implications of this? The most obvious is that it marks the end of the flight to suburbanisation and New Towns and wider deurbanisation that was a feature of much of the last 50-60 years. Other points are
- in Glasgow at least, the increase has mainly been not so much in but on the fringe of the city centre, linking it with the West End and areas like Dennistoun to the east, and to a lesser extent south across the Clyde;
- the decline in Glasgow has been in other parts to the east of the city, in spite of high levels of public investment in these areas over the last 20-30 years;
- the areas where the increase is most apparent are also those with an ethnic diversity and a private rented sector.
These trends also raise more worrying questions. In crude terms, the younger part of the working-age population is increasing in cities, while the elderly population is going to increase in suburban, semi-rural and rural areas.
- are the urban economies going to be asked to support precarious and fragile suburban and rural economies as well as areas of need within their own boundary? - after all, they weren't too concerned about contributing when the cities were in decline;
- rural areas are likely to be faced with two pressures: a declining local economy (because of fewer people in employment) as well as increasing health and social costs due to increasing life expectancy - can services cope, and how will it shape these areas?
- will cities be able to reach their full potential? Aberdeen probably will, given its importance to the energy sector, provided that it decides to. Edinburgh's inbuilt advantages as a political and financial centre will stand in its favour. That leaves Glasgow - contributing more to the Scottish economy (in terms of GVA) than it gets back (in terms of GDHI). It would be ironic if, at the time when its demographics fall in its favour, Glasgow becomes additionally burdened to support areas outside its boundary.
